Table 4 HRs and 95% CIs for cardiovascular disease using the TyG index, AIP, and METS-IR as quartiles and continuous variables

New cases of CVD, n

126

215

271

375

Mean follow-up, years

3.5 ± 2.9

3.8 ± 3.2

3.9 ± 3.3

4.0 ± 3.3

Person-years of follow-up

24,741

27,178

27,432

28,830

Incidence rate/1000 person-years

5.1

7.9

9.9

13.0

Model 1 HR (95% CI)

1.00 (reference)

1.21 (0.97–1.51)

1.35 (1.09–1.67)

1.73 (1.41–2.12)

P value

–

0.089

0.005

0.021

Model 2 HR

1.00 (reference)

1.22 (0.97–1.54)

1.24 (0.99–1.56)

1.38 (1.10–1.74)

P value

–

0.090

0.061

0.006

AIP quartile

Q1 (≤ − 0.23, n = 7100)

Q2 (− 0.22–− 0.03, n = 7069)

Q3 (− 0.02–0.19, n = 7167)

Q4 (≥ 0.20, n = 7101)

New cases of CVD, n

129

219

290

349

Mean follow-up, years

3.3 ± 2.8

3.8 ± 3.1

4.0 ± 3.3

4.2 ± 3.4

Person-years of follow-up

23,430

26,537

28,409

29,804

Incidence rate/1000 person-years

5.5

8.3

10.2

11.7

Model 1 HR (95% CI)

1.00 (reference)

1.17 (0.94–1.46)

1.30 (1.05–1.60)

1.47 (1.19–1.80)

P value

–

0.150

0.015

 < 0.001

Model 2 HR

1.00 (reference)

1.10 (0.88–1.38)

1.14 (0.92–1.42)

1.20 (0.97–1.49)

P value

–

0.403

0.239

0.100

METS-IR quartile

Q1 (≤ 27.84, n = 7111)

Q2 (27.85–32.67, n = 7105)

Q3 (32.68–37.92, n = 7117)

Q4 (≥ 37.93, n = 7104)

New cases of CVD, n

121

208

288

370

Mean follow-up, years

1.7 ± 0.8

2.3 ± 0.9

2.8 ± 1.0

3.2 ± 1.0

Person-years of follow-up

35,031

25,886

23,903

23,360

Incidence rate/1000 person-years

3.5

8.0

12.0

15.8

Model 1 HR (95% CI)

1.00 (reference)

1.78 (1.38–2.29)

2.12 (1.59–2.83)

2.61 (1.83–3.72)

P value

–

 < 0.001

 < 0.001

 < 0.001

Model 2 HR

1.00 (reference)

1.72 (1.33–2.23)

1.85 (1.37–2.50)

1.97 (1.36–2.85)

P value

–

 < 0.001

 < 0.001

 < 0.001

Model 1 HR (95% CI)

1.43 (1.29–1.58)

1.73 (1.40–2.15)

1.06 (1.04–1.08)

P value

 < 0.001

 < 0.001

 < 0.001

Model 2 HR (95% CI)

1.20 (1.07–1.35)

1.34 (1.07–1.69)

1.03 (1.01–1.05)

P value

0.002

0.012

0.001